Newly Released Modeling Results Detail Timeline to Reaching COVID-19 Herd Immunity: Current Vaccination Projections and Trends to Monitor

Salt Lake City, March 16, 2021—Today, Leavitt Partners released “Using Modeling to Project Herd Immunity: When and how we will get back to normal,” a research paper outlining results from their current model to determine the expected timeline to reaching herd immunity from COVID-19. The research was conducted in response to growing interest in understanding variables driving national progress to herd immunity, as well as critical trends to follow that might adversely affect such progress.

As we commemorate the one-year milestone of the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, three major vaccine contributors are at the forefront of the vaccination efforts across the country, partnering with local and federal government officials. The objective? To reach a collective herd immunity from COVID-19 to safely return to normal. Leavitt Partners addresses the leading drivers of a timeline to herd immunity, which include vaccination administration rates, vaccine distribution, and COVID-19 specific drivers (such as mutated variant penetration in the population and current levels of immunity from prior infection).

The model concludes that, following current trends in vaccine distribution and administration as well as accounting for only mild variant penetration, the country is 98 percent likely to reach immunity levels July 2021. However, the advent of a severe spread of the B.1.1.7 (UK) Variant, immunity levels necessary to reach herd immunity would dramatically rise, lowering likelihood of achieving this milestone to 41 percent by July.

We hope this report serves to inform the general population of the benefits of applying scientific research, coupled with modeling best practices, to assess the impact of variables contributing to the timeline to herd immunity. Likewise, we hope it illuminates several factors that could impact our ability to achieve herd immunity, such as vaccine hesitancy and variant spread, and further highlights the importance of a science-based decision-making approach to avoid the adverse effects of prematurely easing public safety protocols.

Download the white paper here.

About Leavitt Partners:
Leavitt Partners, a leading consulting firm, is at the forefront of navigating change in healthcare by providing a holistic view of economic, market, delivery system, and political influences impacting healthcare. We improve lives by advancing value-based care, striving to make health more accessible, effective, and sustainable. For more information, visit