Leavitt Partners Releases “Florida Medicaid Expansion: Enrollment & Budget Forecasts” Report

Salt Lake City, September 30, 2019— Today, Leavitt Partners released a report entitled “Florida Medicaid Expansion: Enrollment & Budget Forecasts”, illustrating what the five-year enrollment and budgetary projections for full Medicaid Expansion in Florida beginning in 2020 could look like. The projections are based on a robust analysis and microsimulation modeling conducted by Leavitt Partners utilizing publicly available data sources. The analysis assumes expansion would extend eligibility for Medicaid to adults aged 19 – 64 with incomes at or below 138 percent of the Federal Poverty Level. To inform policymakers and stakeholders of the implications of a Medicaid expansion option, The Commonwealth Fund retained Leavitt Partners to conduct research that informed this report.

Leavitt Partners’ analysis estimates that a full Medicaid expansion in Florida could lead to:

  1. 837,514 newly eligible Medicaid enrollees by year five of expansion (2024).
  2. Total new costs of $14.3 billion over the first five years, with a Florida state share of $516.4 million and a federal share of $13.8 billion. The federal share represents new federal spending into the state economy.
  3. A reduction in the average per member per month cost of $54 in year one and $123 by 2024.
  4. Indirect fiscal gains of $901 million by 2024 through new federal funds replacing state payments for services outside of the Medicaid program.

The analysis projects a net increase in the number of individuals enrolled in Medicaid with a decrease in per person expenditures. While this analysis was limited to the potential impacts on program enrollment and costs, indirect fiscal gains associated with efficiencies to other programs may offset some or all of the overall cost increase of Medicaid expansion. Economic impacts of the new federal dollars were not estimated, but evidence from the experience of other expansion states indicates that the projected increased Medicaid enrollment in Florida has potential to help reduce the uninsured rate, improve access to care, and improve the financial security of low-income, and other vulnerable populations in the state.

The research report can be viewed here.

Supported by The Commonwealth Fund, a national, private foundation based in New York City that supports independent research on health care issues and makes grants to improve health care practice and policy. The views presented here are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Commonwealth Fund, its directors, officers, or staff.

About Leavitt Partners:
Leavitt Partners is a health care intelligence business. The firm helps clients successfully navigate the evolving role of value in health care by informing, advising, and convening industry leaders on value market analytics, alternative payment models, federal strategies, insurance market insights, and alliances. Through its family of businesses, the firm provides investment support, data and analytics, member-based alliances, and direct services to clients to support decision-making strategies in the value economy. For more information please visit